Good easy to access model showing which states are going to peak above healthcare resources available.
I like the simplicity of it. The error bars are huge of course, but it’s reassuring to me to see that it currently predicts no ICU bed shortage and no ventilator shortage in California.
It also hasn’t been updated for a few days, but the overall likely death toll is now quite a bit lower than before most states issued the stay at home orders. So hopefully we can continue to pull that number lower.
Are patients from states with ICU bed shortages transferred to other states?
right now they are not doing this, but I think that’s something on the table. IT would certainly help New York.
I find it also interesting how the predictive model has evolved over the last 2 weeks. Initially Calif was predicted to peak between 14 and 18 Apr, now its the 26th.
I think that’s the effect of flattening the curve…the peak is lower but also more gradual.
I’m not in the US, but data from our province over the past week shows that we’re flattening the curve to within what our healthcare system can manage. They are still turning the convention centre into a makeshift hospital, just in case, but hopefully it’s not needed in the coming weeks/months.
Good news as of April 5th, we are now down to a projected 81,000 deaths, down from 100,000 in the previous data set. Hopefully we drastically underperform on this metric. The model predicts it could be as low as 50,000.