Flattening the curve?


Finally a hint that there might be a light at the end of the tunnel! Stay tuned for more data…the article contains a link to UW daily tracking. Fingers crossed…


Well UW stopped posting the daily tracker that is linked in the article. Anybody know where I can find this data?

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Try this:

The chart:


Yes, exactly what I need…Thanks! I guess I should check Twitter more often, not usually a Twitterer.


Michel, thanks for re-introducing me to Twitter! Ha.

I found this analysis of daily test data that will be worth remembering as each of us gets bombarded with numbers over the nest week or so…


That is an excellent article by Nate Silver.

This part was particularly valuable to me:

For the time being, 1) the large (perhaps very large) majority of coronavirus positives are undetected and 2) test capacity is ramping up at extremely fast rates, far faster than coronavirus itself would spread even under worst-case assumptions.

So long as those two things hold, the rate of increase in the number of detected cases is primarily a function of the rate of increase in the number of tests and does not tell us that much about how fast the actual infection is spreading.


Yes! For now, every time I see the numbers rise, I cheer because I think it means we’re catching more cases and are closer to the ground truth. We’re just uncovering what we didn’t know about before.
This is part of why I’m frustrated with numbers in California – the most populous state and yet we’ve tested relatively few samples.
I’m not sure what to make of NY: they have skyrocketing numbers but clearly are doing more tests than anywhere else. But about 25% of their tests are turning up positive, which means theres a huge reservoir of undetected COVID-19 still to be discovered.

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