@Michel has asked that I start a new thread with the link to the frequently updated Coronavirus data being published by the N.Y. Times. This link should be visible to all without requiring a NYT account.
A detailed US map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables and graphics including the number of cases by county.
In particular, I like the county-by-county color coded map of how quickly the number of Coronavirus cases are doubling in every county in the US. Less that 3 days to double: you’ve got problems ahead. More than 5 days to double: your shelter-in-place policies are beginning to get traction.
To me, it’s particularly impressive that the folks that are producing this information (that is updated 4-6 times a day) are literally at the epicenter of this Coronavirus mess.
We are all likely all drowning in too much Coronavirus information (and misinformation …), but, to me, if you only look at one site per day, this is the one to look at.
The Bing link also shows counties and I have been tracking on that one. You click United States, then the State, then the state zooms in and you can hover over each county.
I think that the Bing site show total cases for each country, so you need to really factor in population. The world portion of the N.Y. Times site allows you to display total cases or number of cases per 100,000 citizens. Our current per capita number of cases is still lower than Italy … but we ARE catching them in the per capita scale. Why? They have been locked down (and probably more completely locked down) for a longer period of time than we have been so their curve have begun to flatten out.
You will see the same thing in King County (greater Seattle) in Washington and the Bay Area counties in CA … they are doubling every 5-7 days and maybe even slightly longer than 7 days, whereas more recently hit areas are doubling every 2-4. That said, even doubling the number of cases every 7 days is a LOT of new cases.
It shows down to the county level. It starts out at the country level, but all you have to do is click on the county to open up the states, then click on the state to open up that state to see all the counties.
The death toll has grown by more than 500 each day for the last week and now exceeds the number of people known to have died from the virus in mainland China,
The information is very well presented and quite sobering. But why can’t the NYT refrain from publishing fake news? The death rate in the US is most likely only a fraction of deaths in China. But China won’t tell the truth about their statistics, which is common knowledge.
Their frivolous use of fake “facts” only calls their main set of statistics into question.
There is no way that the death rate in the US is a “small fraction” of that in China. China certainly understated its total number of deaths but not enough to say they are a “small fraction” of US cases now – which we also know are a SEVERE undercount, since we have so few tests that we are only counting people who are hospitalized for the most part!!! Given that 80% of cases are self-limiting, how many more people are infected in the US that we are not counting either???
Wuhan is a city of 11 million. The reported number of cases there is 60,000. Assume that there are 5 times that many (i.e. that anyone who had a mild case is not counted AT ALL, which we know not to be true because they isolated close contacts and family members in large facilities which were NOT hospitalized) , and you still are left with 300,000 cases, which is less than the US. I’d believe that; it’s around 3% of the total population, which is a lot but still reasonable given the measures they eventually took. Wuhan is likely the locale where the numbers are dodgiest, because outbreaks in other areas were small enough they didn’t have to shut EVERYTHING down there to get things under control. But even if you multiply ALL the cases in China by 5, you’re left with 400,000 cases – no doubt the US will hit that by tomorrow or the day after.
I am as skeptical of China’s government as much as the next person but I think people are being too credulous when they assume some massive massive undercount. Clearly, there were coverups, and then undercounting, at all levels for various reasons (local party officials fearing reprisals, overwhelmed doctors unable to report cases, party leaders wanting things to look better to the world, etc…). But calling it fake is dumb.
Here’s a story about our own shortcomings in an accurate tally. In these crises, it is always difficult to get a true count of the death toll until the dust settles.
Clearly counting accurately in the midst of a crisis, as others have pointed out, is very difficult even if you are trying to be as accurate as possible. When most news outlets (“fake” or otherwise) quote the China number, they often say “the official COVID-19 death count was …” because (a) that is the number than China has reported and (b) there is, as of yet, no better number to use …
For the record, that other well known “fake news” source (CNN) was the first that I have found that indicated that China WAS undercounting. That article was way back on Feb 27 … which seems like a lifetime ago:
@TiaG Both China and the US are misreporting death counts.
Therefore, when writing a news story, where the truth is paramount, a publication such as the NYT should refrain from editorializing. To present the statement that “…now exceeds the number of people known to have died from the virus in mainland China,…” as fact in a news story is the very definition of fake news.
“They may utilize strong loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes), publish misleading reports and omit reporting of information that may damage conservative causes.”
And that is exactly how I characterized them. “They often publish factual information using loaded words…to favor liberal causes…may require further investigation”.
