And a book on which to ruminate. The United States uniquely had a problem with such deaths long before the coronavirus stopped by, but nobody seemed to care much then.
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Well they should move. In my state there is no sub-minimum for servers, so they make minimum wage plus tips. Even better for the servers is that bill is inflated because the restaurants have to charge enough to pay the servers minimum wage. Because of this, a reasonable fast casual meal is $35 per person and a decent meal for two in Portland is $75 a head or more. Needless to say, my favorite restaurant is my kitchen because I am a self-admitted cheap bastard.
edit - But I am happy for the servers, they make a good living at any reasonable restaurant.
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Iâm eating out all the time making the rounds of the taco trucks and tipping extraordinarily well. Theyâre all beginning to recognize me now⌠you should see the size of the burritos They give you if you tip well. My A1C is going to be in the â â â â â â â but itâs so worth it
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Iâm always glad to find a new source of data. Iâve been using the data coming from Johns Hopkins, especially the worldometers.info site which runs easily on my ipad. But I think you may have misinterpreted the data from the CDC site. Please correct me if Iâm wrong.
First of all, Johns Hopkins reports 93,748 deaths from covid-19 as of yesterday. These are based on daily state reporting of cause of death. Interestingly, this number is confirmed and somewhat expanded by the CDC, which report excess deaths as between 84,891 and 113,139. Furthermore, they note that âData are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more.â So I believe they are stating that the number in their estimate will only increase as those reports come in.
If we use the Johns Hopkins figure of 94,000, then covid-19 death rate has SO FAR killed about three times the average annual flu death rate of 34,000 for the US last year.
Here is a screen grab of the relevant CDC page:
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Like I said in my comments, I donât think the CDC data is trying to show the total Covid related deaths. I think the CDC data is showing the increase in deaths over normal expected rates of death. i.e. the Covid pandemic is causing a lot of deaths, but some of those people would have died anyway, or they died of one of the many other terrible causes of death like heart disease or cancer.
So, I think the CDC data is showing how much effect over the normal expected amount of deaths (55,000 more than normal over 6 weeks). It does a good job in my mind of putting things into perspective rather than try and estimate the total Covid count. As you note, attributing all of the Covid deaths to the proper place will take some time for death certificates to get assigned/submitted. With this being said, I do think the CDCâs total death count per week information is correct. They have a lot of experience collecting and reporting this data.
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And it will get worse, probably 5-8 times the average, before all is said and done this year. Most likely we will end up worse than the 18th century Great Plague, hopefully we donât get as large as the Japanese Smallpox epidemic.
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Swine flu killed 500,000 people and it was an exceptionally mild pandemic. I think assuming 1 million global deaths is likely to be optimistic.
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Well, they ARE trying to show the deaths due to covid-19, because the page you linked to is titled âExcess Deaths Associated with COVID-19â, and that is the whole purpose of the page. Please read the first paragraph of the page:
âEstimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers.â
In other words, the numbers reported by the states directly attributing death to covid-19 (which the Johns Hopkins data collates) are underreported, because the people dying havenât all been tested for covid-19. So instead of simply using those numbers, you should include at least a portion of the Excess Deaths compared to historical averages.
Not sure how you can read that and still conclude that only 55,000 people have died so far from covid-19. Where did you find that number?
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Look 380,000 could have died from Covid during this 6 week period, the 55,000 is the number of people ABOVE the number expected to die during this time period without Covid being present. It isnât the number of people who have died from Covid. Some % of people who died from Covid are represented in the graph below the weekly average line. I think the total death count is correct
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But where did you come up with 55,000? I hope youâre not trying to interpret from the graph you showed. A different dashboard on the same page (the one that I screen grabbed) shows the exact number of excess deaths the CDC estimates, and it is currently 84,891 to 113,139.
The excess deaths you are talking about are a running count since February. My number is for the last 6 weeks (that are reported by the CDC through the end of April) when the number of deaths in the US exceeded the expected number of deaths for this time of year.
My method was to subtract the estimated number of actual deaths from the average expected number of deaths for that week. I then added up the 6 week totals to arrive at 55,000. If you go to the CDC site you can hover over a weekly line and get a very detailed breakdown of information.
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Thanks for explaining. Note that the CDC chose that date since that is when they believe there could have been excess deaths occurring from covid-19. I think if you read the whole page and linked pages, and compare it to the Johns Hopkins data, youâll see that you are not interpreting the data correctly. But if it works for you then that is fine. I would just be careful to cite it as your personal interpolation of the number of deaths (which youâve done here so fine).
Actually, all it takes is a letter from their doctor saying they are immunocompromised and should not be in their employment. That alone makes them qualify for UI based on the COVID-19 provisions enacted by the CARES act.
I do agree that surviving on UI is tough (I know - Iâm doing it). The max UI is only a small fraction of my normal salary. Fortunately, I have much lower expenses than most or I would be homeless and have starved already. I am also fortunate that I my company let me keep my medical insurance, or I would never afford insulin.
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@kmichel I am so sorry to hear that. I hope you find something else soon and please let me know if you are ever in need of supplies/help on the diabetes front. We have lots of extras on the ancillary side of things. Not the main expense I know, but possibly helpful?
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I echo what Tia has said. Lots of supplies to help those in need. Send pm if ever necessary.
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Same. Plenty to share including afrezza
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Thanks all. Iâm overseas with almost no expenses and a small stock of supplies, so doing alright.
Side notes: I believe age is a bigger factor for unemployed. Those in a higher age category will be less employable.
Second side note: I learned that expired insulin is a good healing agent for wounds, and a good plant growth additive.
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I agree 100%. And despite any scientific research, and I live in NYC which was hit very hard by the pandemic, the outcome so far has shown that since the wearing of masks along with social distancing has made an enormous difference on contraction and deaths. Thatâs good enough proof for me. I wear a mask as well as gloves when I leave the house no matter what others say or claim. how inconvenient is it anyhow? I really donât understand why so many r troubled with the idea of putting a mask on ur face. I mean, big deal.
PS: my sister, her husband and two children did not wear masks and they all got COVID. they were miserably sick with the virus. thankfully they all recovered and tested positive for the anti-bodies. But from how they described going through their suffering, there is NO WAY I would entertain or invite this virus if I can take a simple precaution to prevent it.
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Crazy times we are in right nowâŚfrom the Seattle Times:
Representatives with the Seattle parks and neighborhoods departments plan to hand out single-use use masks to people taking part in Saturdayâs demonstrations.
The workers will be handing out hundreds of masks in downtown Seattle, according to the City of Seattle.
MeanwhileâŚcars are set on fire downtown, windows are smashed and a city-wide curfew is declared.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/protest-updates-as-the-country-reacts-to-the-death-of-george-floyd-follow-the-latest-developments-in-seattle-and-elsewhere/