Covid-19 vs. the Flu Reality Check

Anyway, do we actually know any properties of herd immunity for covid, like how strong the post-infection immune response is, and how long it lasts? We risk disaster if we run that experiment in the wild based only on a sense that it will work out ok. If it goes wrong, someone will be blamed. People don’t seem to be concerned about body bags in the abstract, but when they see them locally the pitchforks come out.

Scarily, we don’t! and some scary reports out of South Korea suggest some people can have the virus reactivated. WE don’t know exactly what’s going on in those cases; its possible they test negative falsely. But still, it’s scary. This virus is really a bastard!!!

I think the 2-years of social distancing though faces the same issue. We don’t know how long immunity lasts, but we’d assume it’s stronger initially and wanes over the course of 18 months to 2 years. Do we really want to drag out the time when people are infected so that people could conceivably be infected twice?


This is the big unknown.

The first patient in my city had been in the hospital for 2 weeks and tested 3 times before the third test showed positive. I’ve spoken to nurses who’ve ran as many as 5 tests on multiple patients who they knew were covid before they got a positive result… the tests either don’t work well or aren’t being properly conducted to yield a high rate of accuracy…

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there are tons of false negatives, which we know. But what if those people really ARE negative, as in no detectable virus in their nasal swabs, and then the virus reactivates? I really don’t like this idea at all.

You mean Public Health Departments would need to do their jobs instead of just locking things down?

And I do believe that the studies so far show that the infection rate is significantly lower than first thought. Covid-19 has acted like a fast, brutal killer, and the reason it has not progressed, or is flattening out, is because so many people are apparently immune.

I do not believe that society should go back to normal. But if you allow the low risk population return while keeping the high risk population confined, and do this on demonstrated low risk communities to start, then there is every chance of success.

I thought it was because 90% of the country is staying home, and the rest are being really careful.