He is back from the game. It actually went surprisingly well, as all of our bets paid off:
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the peak was as high as expected, and no higher – that was lucky. We used 2U instead of 4.5U to underdose as explained in OP
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BG started coming down with exercise and insulin right at the same time as pre-game practice was starting. Note that insulin was not enough to make it drop (should have started dropping around 12:45)
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He did not need any glucose during the game – although I find his decision not to take glucose at 1/2 time questionable.
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BG gracefully went down and landed perfectly right after the game with a 10 carb glycogen replenishment right at the end of the game.
One lesson out of today is that a hormone peak can actually replenish glucose during sports. Normally, my son needs to take glucose multiple times during a game.