Thanks for the reference. After reading that paper I’m not prepared to give much support to their conclusion because I prefer an alternate explanation that they themselves gave in the discussion.
Here’s how that alternate explanation goes. On average, the patients in the study got 2.4 A1C measurements per year. Now I’m going to exaggerate to make my point easier to understand. Consider two patients. One has an A1C that’s about 9 every time. The other has an A1C of 11 in the first half of every year, and A1C 7 in the second half of every year. The alternate explanation points out that during each 6-month period their A1C is 11, they’re accumulating a huge amount of damage, and having an A1C of 7 for the other half of the year doesn’t make up for this. So maybe the cause of their extra risk of complications isn’t that ‘their A1C changes a lot’ it’s that ‘they have a way-high A1C for long periods of time.’
Here’s the statement from the paper that gives this alternative explanation:
“An alternative possible explanation for our data relates to the fact that the risk of microvascular complications seems to rise exponentially, rather than linearly, as A1C rises (2,3). Thus, although patients who have more variable A1C values will be spending the same time above and below their mean value as another with comparatively stable A1C, their average risk will be higher because their periods of sustained glycemia far above their mean will be placing them at an especially high complication risk, which will more than cancel out any reduction in risk resulting from them also having equal periods far below their mean. If true, it would be expected that this effect would be exaggerated as the individual’s mean A1C was higher, which may be one reason why the influence of A1C variability seems greater in conventionally treated patients.”
I don’t see where they explain any reason to prefer their original explanation over this one, so I’m not eager to accept their conclusion that “This study has shown that variability in A1C adds to the mean value in predicting microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes.” I’m not inclined to believe “variable A1C causes extra damage” because I find it easier to believe that “extended periods of really high BG cause an accumulation of non-reversible damage.”
And I would be especially reluctant to accept a “science news” summary of their data table along the lines of: “the high-variability A1C group had double the risk of microvascular complications,” because I think that misses the point. To me, extended periods of high BG cause damage, and you can’t undo that by having other extended periods of good BG.
As an aside, I’m not sure I’d draw strong conclusions from this paper in any case. The paper was from 2008, the patients were taking an average of 7 fingersticks per day, and “conventional” treatment probably meant sliding-scale insulin dosing and “intensive” treatment probably meant basal insulin plus a few (like 3 or 4) bolus/correction doses per day. The conventional cohort had an A1C of 9, and the intensive cohort had an A1C of 7. And according to the article, their A1Cs were blinded, so they couldn’t improve themselves based on seeing their own A1C.