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@Chris

Alpha and Beta cell activity graphed against number of years since diagnosis.

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Odds of developing Type 1 Diabetes after a positive Trialnet test

What are the odds of your child being diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) if he or she tests positive to a Trialnet antibody test? What itsTrialNet? TrialNet is a multinational project and set of trials, supported by the ADA, the JDRF, and the NIH among others. It aims to detect (and in a later stage prevent) Type 1 Diabetes as early as possible, if possible before symptoms have appeared. Since relatives of T1Ds are more likely to become T1Ds themselves, the project aims to test siblings, chi…

@Chris Edited to add: Or, another:

Study: Statistics of diabetes onset by age for Trialnet tests

This excellent 2013 study gives updated results as of 2013 for diabetes diagnosis stats (and likely prediction) for subjects who took the 5 Trialnet autoantibody tests, but looks at it by subject age instead of number of years after testing. The population size is large (more than 15,000). Here is the statistics curve, with a 15-year+ horizon: [15YearStatsTrialnetDiag] courtesy Ziegler AG, Rewers M, Simell O, et al. Seroconversion to Multiple Islet Autoantibodies and Risk of Progression t…