well as of now the stats in Italy are looking so dire we can’t tell what they’re saying. The fatality rate is at 6% because they’re just so overwhelmed. A lot of those people could have maybe survived if they had the best treatment options available. My guess is that it’s really going to depend on when people get this, how they’ll fare in the US.
1 Like
On another forum, a mom who used to live in China and was still on some Chinese forums had read about a few cases of T1D in kids and they all came out of it fine. Of course, kids are the ones faring the best in this outbreak so it’s not super surprising.
2 Likes
Unfortunately the government in Italy had to prioritize their resources and stop treatment for many older patients. Sad, they may end up with the highest fatality rate. Fingers crossed this is the worst outcome that arises out of this pandemic.
2 Likes
I suspect that it is more the denominator than the numerator. The NYT had this take at the end of February:
Viral infections often set the stage for bacterial pneumonia to occur. The vaccine is recommended for all people with diabetes age 19-64 and all people older than 64
2 Likes
Sure like I said, it’s worth getting for other reasons and as a broader precaution, because you never know, especially once hospitalized. But it’s not going to prevent or alleviate the pneumonia that is killing people with COVID-19, so for example, if someone needs to go to a pharmacy or dr’s office to get it, it may at present not be worth the increased exposure risk. Depends on all the factors in play.
3 Likes
The fatality rate is also higher because the Italian population is older, especially in the north. Close to a quarter of the population is over 65. The median age (46) is about 4 years higher than in the rest of the EU and about 10 years higher than in the States. Earlier on a Lombardy doctor was quoted as saying 100% of deaths were in those over 80. Although those stats have since changed, last I saw the average age of those who have died was 81.
They also rolled out testing fairly late, so by the time testing was widely available, a lot of people were already seriously ill or on the verge, and therefore more likely to die. (This is the opinion of several Italian friends. I have not checked whether it’s backed up by data.)
6 Likes
The data I checked while researching @Chris’s original comment about not treating older patients backs up those assertions. The median population ages agree with the assertions countrywide; i.e. the median across the whole of China and the median across the whole of Italy. I had not seen the point about northern Italy, but I know enough history to treat the concept of an Italian government with a grain of salt. I would hope Americans in general would, Garibaldi is not just a biscuit and he had a significant influence on our thinking after the revolution.
There is an identical geographical point about China, where most of our figures come from; the numbers primarily reflect the Wuhan population, not the population of China as a country.
Every time I have been able to get at relevant figures they have backed up your point.
Here’s a third party that affirms this line of argument:
It quotes its source; it apparently has only one, but that is the New York Times. The article is also from March 10, so it is contemporary with the discussions here. The NYT article is a better reference because it predates the discussions on this list. It’s also very well written. Very.
5 Likes
Long and sometimes wandering but the best expert info I’ve seen… well worth the time… from an unlikely source
Please watch
1 Like
This is an interesting, and to me somewhat disturbing, read about the mechanism underlying the more serious cases of COVID-19 being cytokine hyper-reactivity. This is also consistent with the above point re: plaquenil, that immune suppression is actually likely a necessary part of treatment, and why people with over-reactive immune systems may be at greater risk. I’m more concerned because of my MCAS than my T1D, but both conditions leave me thinking I’m at higher risk despite my younger age. I definitely would urge extra precautions by anyone who has immune over-reactivity in some way.
Also reports say that over half the ICU hospitalizations so far in France are people under 60. So again, I would not assume that all younger people are safe.
6 Likes
Also another possibly useful piece of info, it may be best to avoid ibuprofen and naproxen right now and rely on acetaminophen for fever reduction and pain relief.
4 Likes
Yeah, this is how I’m feeling. My diabetes is under pretty good control, so I don’t consider that a concern. I do consider the fact that I have a history of four or five autoimmune conditions and six or seven allergic conditions a huge concern. My immune system has tried to kill me enough as it is, I can imagine it going berserk if it was trying to win a war with a virus that was itself trying to kill me…
My parents are also totally freaked out and telling me not to go out, they’ll bring me food and anything else I need. Which is great, but they’re in their 60s, so I don’t want them going out, either. At least we’re not quite in the period where I feel like everything outside is contaminated quite yet, but that period is only a few weeks off…
And viruses can mutate at any time, right? So really, I would not be assuming anything. We have no idea what we’re dealing with or how things may pan out.
4 Likes
Someone at my university tested positive and a local high school student tested positive, in addition to the other cases already documented. The latter is particularly concerning, given that quite a few students/families at that large public high school are refusing to comply with instructions to self-isolate. So I’m pretty much at the “no contact with other people whatsoever, beyond my household” phase right now. We also are being careful to wipe down or discard packaging of delivered goods outside and then sanitize ourselves again. It may seem paranoid, but I’m already having asthmatic coughing per usual thanks to seasonal allergies and my MCAS—I don’t trust my body to be able to handle this virus whatsoever.
3 Likes
I’m off for spring break as of yesterday, and other than a Costco run yesterday and another probably on Tuesday, I’m spending the next two weeks at home. I’m hoping that they close schools when spring break is over if things have gotten worse (which they will have). We definitely have community spread here. My parents live down the block from a care home where there’s an outbreak, and our province had 73 cases as of yesterday (and 50% of the population of our province is in my metro area). So when I’ve been out I’ve been using hand sanitizer regularly, washing my hands and face and changing clothes immediately after coming inside, and yesterday for the first time I wiped down some of my grocery items. But I live in an apartment, so it’s hard to totally isolate myself. (My brother is doing self-isolation already due to contact with someone who is waiting for test results…) What will really freak me out is if or when someone in my building gets diagnosed. I’m not sure if other tenants would necessarily even be told if that happened.
I do have mild asthma and lately have been coughing more due to allergies (pollen levels have been high to very high), and I do have scarring on my lungs already from being on a ventilator after I was born. I do have faith in my immune system, since I hardly ever get sick. But the over-reaction aspect does really concern me. (And I am also on ACE inhibitors, so the fact that I’ve heard they may theoretically increase one’s risk for a severe case is concerning, too.)
Honestly, this whole situation is just so crazy. I actually think some of the people who are acting like it’s no big deal are doing so out of some sort of cognitive dissonance, just not being able to process the whole situation. It feels like we’re in a movie. Just sure hope things don’t get as bad as they do in movies, but really, things are on a pretty scary trajectory right now.
8 Likes
Agreed with that 100%.
7 Likes
27% of the French population is 60 or older, 73% is under 60. The fatality rate seems to start going up at 40. Fatalities happen with the more severe phase 2. Presumably ICU admissions increase in a similar but less pronounced fashion, that seems reasonable.
1 Like
Yeah, so as someone who is barely younger than that and has a partner over 40, I don’t find that particularly comforting, heh. I’m not too worried though, because we are taking all the precautions.
Also, the total ICU number matters a lot, as well as fatalities for two reasons. One, the virus appears capable of causing permanent lung damage/scarring, even if you do recover, which while certainly less scary than death, is nothing any of us wants. Two, that’s one more ICU bed when we don’t have nearly enough for the likely amount of people who will need them.
2 Likes
Thanks, you put things in context; my situation is very different, but curiously we are all in the same leaky boat.
2 Likes
We have 6 confirmed cases in Montana as of today, so things are starting to get real. Our governor closed all K-12 schools today, and all our universities went online last week. The TP is gone everywhere but everything else is available.
We’re planning on staying put.
2 Likes
Have you seen anything more about these critical cases in France? I can’t find much more than this general statement- maybe because they’re more focused on helping people right now. Still, I was wondering.