# Flattening the curve? **URL:** https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497 **Category:** Share **Created:** [March 20, 2020, 5:50am UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497 "2020-03-20T05:50:32Z") **Posts on this page:** 7 **Page:** 1
### Author: ![John58](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/user_avatar/forum.fudiabetes.org/john58/32/147_2.png) [@John58](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/u/John58) #### Post date: [March 20, 2020, 5:50am UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497/1 "2020-03-20T05:50:32Z")
[https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/03/19/seattle-flattening-curve/](https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/03/19/seattle-flattening-curve/) Finally a hint that there might be a light at the end of the tunnel! Stay tuned for more data…the article contains a link to UW daily tracking. Fingers crossed… ---
### Author: ![John58](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/user_avatar/forum.fudiabetes.org/john58/32/147_2.png) [@John58](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/u/John58) #### Post date: [March 21, 2020, 1:27am UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497/2 "2020-03-21T01:27:19Z")
Well UW stopped posting the daily tracker that is linked in the article. Anybody know where I can find this data? ---
### Author: ![Michel](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/user_avatar/forum.fudiabetes.org/michel/32/387_2.png) [@Michel](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/u/Michel) #### Post date: [March 21, 2020, 1:39am UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497/3 "2020-03-21T01:39:00Z")
Try this: > > The chart: ![UpdatedSeattleViralNumbers2020-03-20Large](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/uploads/fudiabetes/original/2X/9/9a97ee1e75e993c22f1be424c56c997e75db52e9.jpeg) ---
### Author: ![John58](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/user_avatar/forum.fudiabetes.org/john58/32/147_2.png) [@John58](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/u/John58) #### Post date: [March 21, 2020, 1:41am UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497/4 "2020-03-21T01:41:42Z")
Yes, exactly what I need…Thanks! I guess I should check Twitter more often, not usually a Twitterer. ---
### Author: ![John58](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/user_avatar/forum.fudiabetes.org/john58/32/147_2.png) [@John58](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/u/John58) #### Post date: [March 21, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497/5 "2020-03-21T01:55:59Z")
Michel, thanks for re-introducing me to Twitter! Ha. I found this analysis of daily test data that will be worth remembering as each of us gets bombarded with numbers over the nest week or so… > **[Thread by @NateSilver538: THREAD: Washington state is a good example of the...](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241113755016138755.html)** > > Thread by @NateSilver538: THREAD: Washington state is a good example of the importance of accounting for the number of tests when reporting Ce counts. Remember I mentioned a couple of days ago how their number of cases in WA had begun to stabilize?... ---
### Author: ![Michel](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/user_avatar/forum.fudiabetes.org/michel/32/387_2.png) [@Michel](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/u/Michel) #### Post date: [March 21, 2020, 2:06am UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497/6 "2020-03-21T02:06:21Z")
That is an excellent article by Nate Silver. This part was particularly valuable to me: > For the time being, 1) the large (perhaps very large) majority of coronavirus positives are undetected and 2) test capacity is ramping up at extremely fast rates, far faster than coronavirus itself would spread even under worst-case assumptions. > > So long as those two things hold, the rate of increase in the number of _detected_ cases is primarily a function of the rate of increase in the number of _tests_ and does not tell us that much about how fast the actual _infection_ is spreading. ---
### Author: ![TiaG](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex030/user_avatar/forum.fudiabetes.org/tiag/32/594_2.png) [@TiaG](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/u/TiaG) #### Post date: [March 21, 2020, 11:35pm UTC](https://forum.fudiabetes.org/t/flattening-the-curve/9497/7 "2020-03-21T23:35:44Z")
Yes! For now, every time I see the numbers rise, I cheer because I think it means we’re catching more cases and are closer to the ground truth. We’re just uncovering what we didn’t know about before. This is part of why I’m frustrated with numbers in California – the most populous state and yet we’ve tested relatively few samples. I’m not sure what to make of NY: they have skyrocketing numbers but clearly are doing more tests than anywhere else. But about 25% of their tests are turning up positive, which means theres a huge reservoir of undetected COVID-19 still to be discovered.